Over the past few years, the Egyptian economy has faced a series of global and domestic challenges and shocks. These unfavorable conditions have affected the progress of the reforms implemented prior to 2020, placing pressure on key economic indicators. Despite these headwinds, Egypt’s economy exceeded the targets set under the International Monetary Fund (IMF) program during fiscal year (FY) 2024/25.

In this Factsheet, we review Egypt’s key economic indicators in FY2024/25 and present projections and government targets for the ongoing FY2025/26.

• In FY2024/25, Egypt recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 4.4%, supported by a notable acceleration in economic activity during the fourth quarter (Q4). For FY2025/26, the government targets a 4.5% GDP growth rate, which is consistent with projections by both the IMF and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). Meanwhile, Fitch and S&P anticipate a slightly higher growth of 4.7%–4.8%, whereas the World Bank projects a more moderate 4.3%.
• Egypt’s inflation rate declined significantly from 25.7% at the beginning of FY2024/25 to 14.9% by year-end. Recently, the Egyptian Prime Minister announced that inflation is expected to drop to around 8% by the second half (H2) of 2026. However, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) projects a slightly higher range of 11% and 12%. Meanwhile, Fitch, S&P, the World Bank, and the IMF estimate inflation for FY2025/26 to range between 11.1% and 14.6%.
• In FY2024/25, Egypt’s public budget deficit was estimated at 7.6% of GDP. For the current fiscal year, the government aims to narrow the deficit to 7.3%. The World Bank projects a lower deficit of 6.7% of GDP, while Fitch, S&P, and the IMF forecast deficits of 7.5%, 7.1%, and 10.1%, respectively.
• The current account deficit declined by 26% year-on-year (YoY) to $15.4 billion in FY2024/25. According to S&P, the current account deficit is projected to represent 4.1% of GDP, while the World Bank and IMF estimates were lower at 3.8% and 3.66%, respectively.
• During FY2024/25, Egypt’s net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows reached $12.2 billion, representing a 10% YoY increase, excluding inflows related to the Ras El Hekma deal. For FY2025/26, S&P projects net FDI inflows to account for around 2% of Egypt’s GDP, while Fitch estimates higher inflows of approximately $15.5 billion, equivalent to 3.4% of GDP.

By: Amina Hussein

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