Egypt’s non-oil business downturn eases in October as PMI edges up to 49.2

Updated 11/4/2025 8:04:00 AM

Arab Finance: Egypt’s headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose from 48.8 in September 2025 to 49.2 in October, according to the latest S&P Global PMI data.

The reading, remaining above the series average of 48.2, showed a marginal drop in overall business conditions, as new orders decreased at a softer pace and input cost pressures intensified, driven by rising wage inflation.

Non-oil private sector businesses recorded the slowest decline in output volumes for eight months amid reports of an improvement in overall market conditions.

The manufacturing sector was the only one to see an increase in new order volumes, helping ease the impact of weaker activity in key sectors, such as services, wholesale & retail, and construction. The reduction was only mild and the least pronounced in five months.

The latest PMI figures suggest that the gross domestic product (GDP) growth seen throughout 2025 so far has been maintained at the start of the final quarter.

As for employment, businesses reported the third surge in workforce numbers over the past four months, although the rate of job creation was minimal.

Likewise, backlogs of work jumped for the second consecutive month, and at a faster pace than in September.

The price pressures emerged as a greater concern in the non-oil private sector during October. However, expectations for future activity strengthened, and the companies expressed optimism regarding client demand and overall domestic economic conditions.

Overall input costs rose at the fastest rate in five months, driven by the sharpest increase in wage costs since October 2020.

David Owen, Senior Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: “The Egypt PMI stayed above its long-term trend in October, pointing to a year-on-year GDP growth rate of about 4.6%.”

“At the same time, overall business activity moderated at its slowest pace in eight months, while demand indicators are picking up, hinting that momentum in domestic markets has improved slightly at the start of the fourth quarter,” Owen added.

He indicated: “This has boosted firms’ optimism for the year ahead, while keeping staffing and purchases fairly steady. However, rising cost pressures could slow things down if companies struggle to absorb these costs in the months ahead.”