Ramadan Kareem everyone. This year, the holy month of Ramadan comes in the midst of difficult economic circumstances, with the Egyptian market suffering from the unavailability of some goods, in addition to instability and a continuous rise in prices, especially those of food and beverages. These conditions will likely affect the Egyptians’ behavior during the holy month.  

In this Factsheet, Arab Finance will highlight the current economic conditions surrounding the awaited holy month.

• The consumption of Egyptian people significantly increases during Ramadan. The Ministry of Supply estimated that food consumption would double during Ramadan to reach around EGP 120 billion this year. 
• As Ramadan is the month of goodness and charity, Egyptians tend to prepare a “Ramadan Box” to be given away for charitable purposes. This year, the “Ramadan Box” prices are hit by the inflationary wave that began in late 2022. The average prices of fresh chicken, cooking oil, rice, and pasta reached an unprecedented level of EGP 124, EGP 67, EGP 27, and EGP 43, respectively. The prices are expected to further rise as we get closer to the beginning of the holy month.
• From its side, the Egyptian government has worked to secure the supply of basic goods, including cooking oil, rice, sugar, and wheat. The Minister of Supply announced that the strategic reserves of wheat are sufficient for 3.3 months, while food oil reserves would last for around five months, sugar reserves are enough for three months, and rice strategic reserves are sufficient for more than three months.
• On March 2nd, Egypt’s President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi directed the government to provide a social package to alleviate the ramifications of the global economic situation on the public. The package will start on April 1st, within the first week of Ramadan. The package, which will cost the government EGP 150 billion annually, targets increasing the minimum wage of public sector employees from EGP 3,000 to EGP 3,500. In addition, pensions will rise by 15%, while Takaful and Karama benefits will rise by 25%. Furthermore, the government will commit to increasing the exemption limit on income tax from EGP 24,000 to EGP 36,000. 
• This year, Ramadan will not only be full of food and goodness, but it will also bring economic news for the Egyptian street, including the inflation rate of March and the results of the meeting of the Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
• In February, the headline inflation rate recorded a historic level of 40.3%, leading Egypt to rank fourth globally in terms of inflation. With the expected rise in consumption during the holy month, inflation is expected to further increase in March.
• The MPC will hold its meeting by the end of March to announce the awaited decision on interest rates. Various projections suggest that MPC will increase the interest rates, with Goldman Sachs Group predicting that the CBE would raise interest rates by nearly 300 basis points.

By: Amina Hussein

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