CBE projects Egypt’s GDP Growth at 4.8% for FY2025/26
Updated 8/7/2025 7:04:00 AM
Arab Finance: Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to hit 4.8% in fiscal year (FY) 2025/2026 and 5.1% in FY 2026/2027, the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) highlighted in its Monetary Policy Report for the second quarter (Q2) of 2025.
This also reflects a real growth of private sector credit, along with high demand and investment across sectors, particularly manufacturing and services.
This positive forecast is likely to be backed by a gradual recovery in Suez Canal business during FY 2025/2026. In this regard, the output gap is projected to continue narrowing, with output expected to reach its potential by the end of FY 2025/2026.
The overall fiscal deficit is projected to drop by 3.4 percentage points over the upcoming four years to hit 4.2% of GDP by FY 2028/2029.
Moreover, the CBE expected broad money (M2) to carry on its decelerating trend in June 2025, before rising to 24.2% by the end of FY2025/2026. However, M2 is likely to fall again to 19.9% by the end of FY 2026/2027.
In its recent meeting on July 10TH, 2025, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to maintain the CBE’s overnight deposit rate, overnight lending rate, and the rate of the main operation at 24%, 25%, and 24.50%, respectively. Likewise, the discount rate was kept unchanged at 24.5%.
The committee said the current rates are appropriate to support the disinflation path, noting that it will continue to evaluate its decisions regarding the magnitude and pace of policy adjustment on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
Meanwhile, the MPC will closely monitor economic and financial developments, aiming to achieve its price stability mandate, steering inflation towards its target of 7% (± 2 percentage points), on average, in Q4 2026.
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