BNP Paribas forecasts Egypt’s GDP growth at 5.2% in FY2025/26
Updated 11/17/2025 2:22:00 PM
Arab Finance: French multinational universal bank BNP Paribas expects Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) to rise by 5.2% in the fiscal year (FY) 2025/2026, according to the bank’s latest report.
The projected growth is mainly due to a rise in household consumption, which accounts for nearly 80% of the economy, in addition to improving business conditions supported by ongoing interest-rate cuts.
Moreover, the bank forecasts Egypt's real GDP growth to hit 5.5% in FY 2026/2027.
BNP Paribas highlighted that the gradual stabilization of the Egyptian economy is continuing thanks to the restoration of foreign currency liquidity, even though the pace of reforms has been uneven.
The report highlighted that the rebound in activity exceeded expectations, despite a restrictive fiscal and monetary environment.
Meanwhile, the decrease in inflation, mainly due to the slowdown in food inflation, can be sustained, which will secure continued monetary easing in the coming quarters.
The outlook for foreign currency liquidity is positive, driven by substantial financing from bilateral and multilateral creditors.
As for the energy sector, the French bank affirmed that it needs to be monitored, elaborating that its growing imbalances continue to affect Egypt’s economic activity and external accounts.
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