Orascom Development nears 20% revenue CAGR over 4 years: HC Brokerage

Updated 2/8/2026 12:59:00 PM

Arab Finance: Orascom Development Egypt’s revenues are expected to witness a four-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 20%, with 18% for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and about 31% for net income, according to HC Brokerage’s update on the company.

This growth is driven by higher residential prices, tourism revenue, and gross margin expansion.

Mariam ElSaadany, real estate analyst at HC Brokerage, indicated that Red Sea land revaluation and strong tourism revenue unlock significant value for the Orascom Development Egypt.

Touching upon the real estate sector, the analyst expected this year to be challenging for the residential segment due to the high price of housing units and aggressive buying over 2023–2025, leading to a higher market supply of units.

“For the real estate segment, we expect revenue to grow at a four-year CAGR of c23%, representing an average contribution of c60% to total revenue over 2025–2029,” ElSaadany said.

“Our total real estate revenue recognition over our forecast period is EGP 238 billion, including EGP 43.3billion from its deferred revenue balance and EGP 195 billion of new sales. We expect an average real estate GPM of 36% over 2025–2029.”

ElSaadany also addressed lower interest rates, which negatively affect customers’ ability to finance units through interest income from certificates of deposit (CDs) and ease inflation.

“We do not expect a recovery in real estate demand before H2 2026, which could lead to a market correction, with developers offering limited price increases on new launches,” she highlighted.

HC Brokerage expects “the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) to cut interest rates by a further 300 basis points (bps) on top of the 725 bps in 2025, improving the purchasing power of Egyptian real estate buyers.”

Moreover, ElSaadany affirmed that Orascom is well-positioned to benefit from Egypt’s story in the short to long term.

“The unlocking of value in the Red Sea triggered by the announcement of Emaar Misr’s Marassi Red Sea bodes very well for the company’s 15 million sqm of undeveloped land in El Gouna, in our view, as our calculation for Marassi Red Sea implies an NPV/sqm of EGP3,765/sqm,” she explained.

“Our estimates include collections of EGP 208 billion and capital expenditure (CAPEX) of EGP 102 billion for real estate operations over our forecast period. Our remaining 18% of revenue over our forecast period is from the company’s town management segment, while we account for no land sales,” she concluded.