Arab Finance: Egypt’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 4.3% in fiscal year (FY) 2026/2027, easing from an estimated 5.1% growth in FY2025/2026, according to the World Bank’s October 2026 Macro Poverty Outlook.
Tighter financial conditions are expected to constrain investment, while inflation weighs on household spending. Growth is projected to recover to 5% in FY2027/2028.
Average inflation is forecast to rise to 14.2% in FY2026/2027 from 13.3% in FY2025/2026, before falling to single digits the following year. Poverty is expected to remain broadly stagnant.
External buffers strengthened, with official reserves and other foreign currency assets reaching $67.4 billion in June 2026.
The World Bank projects debt at 76.3% of GDP in FY2026/2027 and a fiscal deficit of 6.5%.
Risks include regional conflict, volatile portfolio flows, and external financing needs of approximately $28 billion in the first half of FY2026/2027. The bank called for reforms to strengthen private-sector activity, improve the business climate, and protect vulnerable households.
